Saturday, June 2, 2012

REMARK ON "BAYES THEOREM"--AND ABRAHAM WALD

SURVEILLANCE, CRIME & PHILOSOPHY & CULTURE

IN RE LORD ALFRED BAYES, PRESBYTERIAN PASTOR, CHURCH OF SCOTLAND-

WHAT CAN WE WITH OUT DOUBT KNOW--"NEVER BET AGAINST YOUR OWN STAKES BY RULE OF THUMB, BECAUSE THE CHANCES ARE WHAT IS LIKELY IS MORE PROBABISTICALLY FALSE, SO THAT YOUR SUBJECTIVIST BET MAY ACTUALLY WIN OUT AT THE END."

ABRAHAM WALD--'I MUST NOT DEVISE A TEST STATISTICS PRONE TO HAVING INFLATED STANDARD ERRORS."

--SO SHALL I COMMENT--"IN THIS TIMES OF FENZY AND ALARM--EVEN TO THINK STRAIGHT  IS A INFLATED STANDARD OF ERROR OF THOUGHT."  IT IS IDIOCY IF YOU BELIEVE THAT YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT YOU CONCLUDE, ON CONDTIONAL PREMISES LEADS YOU TO THE OUTCOME OF TRUTH, WHICH IS NEITHER HUBRIS, BUT THE FRAIL HUMAN CONDITION OF DISCERNING THE CONSEQUENTIAL EFFECTS OF EMBRACING AND COPING WITH REALITY IN SITU.

TOO MUCH WATER UNDER  THE BRIDGE, MAY OVER-FLOOD THE  BRIDGE. EXAGGERATION IS THE ABUSE OF SYMBOLIC HYBERBOLE. EMPTY FLATTERY OF  A NARCISSTIC SELF.



RSYCA KIM, EDITOR IN CHIEF, ABBOT, HERMETUS, ORDER OF SS THOMAS & BARTHOLOMEW, METHODIUS AND ST. ANDREW DAE GYEON KIM,  HOLY SEE, CHURCH OF ROME IN THE WEST

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Koryeo(Executive) Senior Editor, Robert Turly--Asian Art & Humanities

R.S.Y Kim, Ph.D., Order & Society of SS. Thomas and Bartholomew, who studied Law,_LIT, Math @ NYU; John Jay College of Criminal Justice/CUNY Graduate Center Research Foundation Fellow (Dept.Management, Law, Criminal Justice; CO-Editor-BEN LIU, BROWN U< West/East PSYCH: Senior Math/Stats Editor, Editor. S. VAN BEVERHAUT; Assoc. Communications Ed. Michael Reyes, Hamilton College: Hon. Supreme THEORETICAL MATHEMATICS ED. ALGIRDAS.T. University at LITHUANIA-POLAND;Film Editor-"Voltaire," SUNY-BINGHAMTON U. SR Assoc. Math.Ed. Arsen Yakubov, U of Israel-Princeton U----Advisory Board--Gautam Ramakrishna, MD,(EMERITUS) Executive Secretary, Nada Pues Nada (Mayo Clinic Research Group)- C. Lieberman, PhD, NYPD, Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism, Investigation and Policing Philosophy, John Jay College-University of New Haven(EMERITUS) *AFFIL=DULLES/BENTON/KLEINIG/SCHWARTZ/LEVINE/KIM/WANG PAN AMERICAN-ASIAN INSTITUTE FOR PEACE, WAR, ECONOMICS & JUSTICE-Legal and Political Advisor: Barry Latzer, JD, PhD (EMERITUS); ; ;Nicholas Birns PhD GPBNEW SCH0OL U=Executive V. President, B.Liu. Senior Ed. Glen Slaby--